The Funky Friday Rundown (8/24/07)

(Note: Every Friday, I am going to do a one-line commentary about the past week on some of the more popular penny stocks listed on Investors Hub. These are NOT recommendations. They are just some thoughts. )



1) Seaway Valley Capital Corporation (SWVC) -- Its nice to see this company's attempt in acquiring a decent brand-named business, but is it really going to make an impact to elevate this stock above the pink sheet gravity...? Is there really a future here? Where is there a true competitive edge that can effectively launch and sustain company growth? I just can't see it.

2) Xechem International, Inc. (XKEM) -- There might be some long-term potential here. It pains me to say this though, but bear in mind that there are reasons why companies tend to stay away from operating in Africa. Nevertheless, in the short- to medium-term, I'm not expecting much progress on the stock ticker until the facilities are fully operational and doing business.

3) Burn Media Ltd (BUNM) -- Long-Term prognosis is very hazy. Not exactly a revolutionary idea, but like many modern-day business ventures it could easily be turned into one overnight with a little tweaking. Might be interesting to keep an eye on, but I see nothing here that says buy at the current state of the company. If popularity soars, we'll have a different story. Don't hold your breath.

4) Eternal Image (ETIM) -- I like anything under $0.004. Going to have to wait a while for this one to take off.

5) Ifinix Corp (INXR) -- I think this one might spike again, but I'm staying out.

The Funky Friday Rundown (8/17/2007)

(Note: Every Friday [I do not post on Saturday or Sunday], I am going to do a one-line commentary about the past week on some of the more popular penny stocks listed on Investors Hub. These are NOT recommendations... just some thoughts. )

1) Global Diamond Exchange, Inc. (GBDX) – Interesting volume on today’s close. I like the likeliness of the company being turned private, but my caution bone is starting to tingle over the lack of the company’s transparency.

2) Phoenix Associates Land Syndicate (PBLS) – Verification from Komex needed, but clear sailing otherwise. In my opinion, the company was undervalued from both a current and long-term view even before the massive contract.

3) Ifinix Corp (INXR) – Yeup…. Might be an interesting short-term play, but I’m not seeing a bright future if a brokerage doesn’t adopt the software.

4) Esprit Financial Group Inc. (EFGO) – I’ll admit that I know little about this one, but there’s a very strong aura of desperation surrounding the company's focus. Personally, I haven’t seen anything that catches my eye for a sustainable long-term future.

5) Eternal Image Inc (ETIM) – Company’s trading sideways staying aloft in light of pink sheet gravity. I love the future of this company, the industry hasn’t been changed in tens if not hundreds of years.

Reverse Split Death

Contrary to popular belief, there is no such thing as a true bottomed-out share price. It’s almost a funny concept that those who trade on the upper exchanges believe that a share price of $0.01 (one penny) is the lowest a stock can go. Any penny stock investor (PSI) knows this to be a myth when they start venturing into the subpenny stocks. Yet it’s also a common mistake for those on the lower exchanges to believe that $0.0001 (one hundredth of a penny) is the lowest a stock’s share price can go. This is simply not true.

The value $0.0001 holds significance in the eye of penny stock investors because it is the lowest digit place that most brokerages will allow to be traded. Nevertheless even this can not be viewed as a practical bottom. Enter the dangers of the reverse split. A reverse split is an easy enough concept to understand: For every x amount of stock you own, you are now given y amount of stock (where X>Y) as the share structure is equally cut by a specified ratio. For instance, if you had 1000 shares of ACME Inc. that underwent a 1:10 reverse split, you will end up with 100 shares of ACME Inc. even though the value of those shares have not effectively been changed.

However, the dangers of this shifty maneuver are not in the action itself. A split of any kind will never change the inherent value of that stock (for all intensive purposes - we can talk about protected preferred shares another time). The dangers of this maneuver (aside from the affected shareholder sentiment that reacts to the announcement of a reverse split) is in the likely subsequent action of the company. A company that feels like it needs to reverse split typically has the intention of further diluting the stock once again in order to raise capital. Going back to our example of ACME Inc., pretend that the share price was originally $0.10. After the effective 1:10 split, the share price now becomes worth $1.00. This is a more respectable share price to the psychology of the shareholder despite the fact that the value of the stock has not inherently changed.

It is rare for a company to decide to reverse split its stock without having the intention of later diluting it. One possible reason in which this might take place is when a company needs to hit a certain price to retain its listing on a certain exchange. Another reason is that a company might merely want a more respectable share structure (a few million shares instead of a few hundred million shares). Yet for the most part, reverse splits are never as innocent as these scenarios. Often, these might even be used as the masking reasons behind the true intentions of the company.

Reverse splits are common on the lower exchanges. Many companies end up diluting there stock so much that the original price of the company’s stock may appear to have been worth hundreds if not thousands of dollars at one point in time. Typically, it’s a good idea to avoid companies that undertake reverse mergers entirely. Companies that are the product of a reverse merger (that might have included a reverse split) are a different story entirely. We will talk more about this another day.

Death of a Company

The Pink Sheets are often viewed as the birthplace of new companies, where concepts meet public capital in an intricate process of implementation. Often these companies are spawned into public life out of the shells of companies with broken pasts through a reverse merger process. Yet as in every circle of life, there must be death before there is life. In regards to the Pink Sheets, it should be viewed as an open gateway between the life and death of public companies. There are the dying companies that have no future (many that have fallen from the graces of the upper exchanges after being delisted), the stagnant companies unable to clear the pink sheet gravity and will eventually die just as the former, and finally the undervalued gems with futures that can eventually clear the lower exchanges obstacles.

Not all companies on the Pink Sheets are in a transitive state. Well-known companies like Nestle (NSRGY.pk) and Heineken (HINKY.pk) call the Pink Sheets their home for instance. Yet for the most part, and for most people, the Pink Sheets will always be that high-risk zone where the rules of the game starkly change. Like a stigmata, the “.pk” brands companies with the degrading mark of instability, volatility, and a general sense of futility.

As another rule of thumb for penny stock investors (PSI), it is wise to stay away altogether from delisted companies. Companies that have failed to retain their spots on the upper exchanges are the fallen angels of the investment community. They carry momentum of a dangerous kind, as their futures are vague or perishing and the need to raise capital likely lurks around the corner. A wise PSI will fish in “safer” waters by trying to find companies that are new to the market, and yet not new as a company. Stop watching companies that have come to the Pink Sheets to die. After all, resurrections are a rare occurrence.

Pink Sheet Gravity

For some time now I have been referring to a phenomenon known as Pink Sheet Gravity that only exists on the lower exchanges. Roughly defined, pink sheet gravity is the market force that pulls down the share prices of the public companies listed on the OTC:BB and the Pink Sheets. It is likely the cumulative effect of several conditions varying from dilution of the company stock, the social environment of the lower exchanges, and the mysterious (but commonly blamed scapegoat) naked shorting process .

Pink Sheet Gravity is the most influential operational distinction between the lower exchanges and the upper exchanges (NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX, etc). From a historical standpoint, the stock market (upper exchanges) has maintained a steadily growing upward momentum over the long run. Were one to look at a comparable study at the lower exchanges, we would see a trend very much in the opposite direction.

It is for this reason that investing on the lower exchanges has always been an avoided practice. Like putting coins in the slot machines of several casinos, diversifying a portfolio on the lower exchanges leaves the odds of long-term success low in your favor. Yet with meticulous research, comprehension of the lower exchanges, and self-control, choosing the companies that can succeed in beating the house can be reduced to an informal “science”. Just as well-known poker players annually find their ways back to the final tournament table, a penny stock investor who knows the game is likewise able to overcome the Pink Sheet Gravity through the undervalued companies primed for take-off.

Diversification Overkill

The number one rule that every investor knows is to “diversify your portfolio.” It couldn’t make more common sense than if Mr. T himself were to jump out from around the corner and say it as it is. Diversifying one’s portfolio makes perfect sense as the only effective tool to soften the blow of losses in a dangerous market. Yet diversification can also serve as a Trojan horse when it comes to the pink sheets, where penny stock investors (PSI) come to apply the rules of the game they’ve learned from trading on the upper exchanges.

From a practical standpoint, it is wise to invest only a certain percentage of your portfolio into penny stocks (NEVER invest your entire portfolio into penny stocks). This is an intelligent form of diversification. Penny stocks must always be considered speculative, and it is wise to dip your hands across the risk spectrum for a balanced portfolio fit for you. However for the fool who ignores this advice, diversification entirely on the lower exchanges will NOT mitigate your losses more so than investing into a few companies.

For the unfortunate fool who finds himself heavily invested in penny stocks, diversification results in a capturing of the lower exchange market as a whole. Yet unlike the upper exchanges, we have already established that the lower exchanges are hindered by the pink sheet gravity. Diversification on the lower exchanges results in the downward momentum of your portfolio.

Proper commitment to the procedure of research and confirmation will give way to proving that some lower exchange companies stand high above the rest in regards to their inherent value to the industry. Out of the amount you’ve set aside for penny stocks, invest heavily in these companies at the ideal times.

As a rule of thumb, whenever possible, aim to try to own at least 1/10,000^th of the company’s outstanding common stock. Depending on how wealthy you are, this fraction can vary accordingly. When considering that decent money on the upper exchanges will tend to buy you a fraction in the 1/100,000^th to 1/1,000000^th range, it is wise to exploit the advantage of the lower exchange market – low market capitalizations. If you find that your investments in your portfolio are nowhere near accomplishing this fraction, consider tightening the amount of companies you’re invested in.

The Funky Friday Rundown (8/10/2007)

(Note: Every Friday [I do not post on Saturday or Sunday], I am going to do a short commentary about some of the more popular penny stocks of the past week listed on Investors Hub. These are NOT recommendations... just some thoughts. )

1) Phoenix Associates Land Syndicate (PBLS) -- As of right now 3:25am, I’d say that the 1^st round of anxious profit-taking is done and the second round of accumulation is coming around. HUGE contract, pay attention to this company.

2) Panamersa Corporation (PNMS) – CEO Mike Terell left, or did he? Personally it seems like his “departure” would mean he’s more committed to the company by getting further involved… and that kind of devotion is a good thing in my books.

3) Deep Down, Inc. (DPDW) -- Oil’s expanding out to shore in the long run, and the price is only going up. This company’s got a likely future, but no comment on the short-run.

4) Franchise Capital Corp (FCCN) – Never been into auto parts myself, but there’s something to be said about the attention Aero’s been getting. I’m curious how profitable they can be.

5) Renewable Energy Resources, Inc (RENW) – Still seeing a lot more pain before the gain. I like the potential though. Huge jump for those who caught the bottom, but I got a feeling it won’t be the last time we see it there.